Analysis From Raleigh

First off, I want to say that I had a great time at the game. While I am now 0-5 in my last 5 away games, I was able to leave this one feeling good. There were only a few negatives from tonight, and a lot of positives. While the shot total was very lopsided for a good portion of the game, it wasn’t a good indicator of how the Thrashers were playing. Considering the prospect-filled lineup Atlanta had, and the NHL lineup Carolina skated, the 4-3 loss on Friday night was a victory in my mind.

I would like to make special mention of the Hurricanes’ fans. While this was the pre-season and the stadium was only about half full, the crowd was really into the game. About half of the people there were in jerseys, and that’s not counting shirts, jackets, etc. There were a bunch of kids wearing their own hockey jerseys as well. They love their Canes up here, and I hope one day Atlanta can get the same kind of support.

I’m going to start with the one bad thing I saw and transition into the good ones. Valabik was really bad…again. In the first period, he had the puck on Atlanta’s goal line on the right side of the ice. Instead of assessing the situation or attempting a pass up the boards to the right wing, he lasers the puck in the slot right onto the stick of a Carolina forward. Luckily, no goal was scored, but this mishap also led to a long cycle for the opposition. Decisions like this are something Valabik cannot afford to make at this point. Later in the game, he unnecessarily crosschecked a Cane and was lucky no ref saw. Throughout the contest, I found him out of position multiple times, which led to scoring chances. When things started to get chippy, Boris looked to smack around anyone he could and lost focus on where the puck was and what was going on in the game. Like I’ve said previously, I want no part of this guy on my team.

Now onto the good things. I’ll start in goal and move my way out. Manny Legace was phenomenal. If this game didn’t earn him a roster spot, then nothing will. The score after the first period could have been 5-0, but he did a great job preventing a disaster. He made one particularly great save in the second period while on his side. He faced 27 shots and only allowed 1 goal (1 I don’t count, and will get to that later.) The best way to describe his play is “solid.” He didn’t make a whole lot of spectacular saves, but Manny was in the right position all the time and only had one or two scary rebounds.

After the second period, Drew McIntyre took over between the pipes. He made a great save on a centering pass early on, but eventually allowed two goals. I refuse to blame Drew for either. One was a tip-in, and the other was on a 5 on 3. Because of this, it was tough to gauge his performance. Drew looked really calm out there, which was nice to see. When the puck sat on the ice in front of him, he didn’t panic and calmly melted it several times. It’s a shame that Mac only got one period to play the entire preseason, but the Thrashers clearly have better options at this point.

As far as defensemen, I kept a close eye on #60 Paul Postma. Paul is an extremely smooth skater and has fantastic offensive instinct. It’s easy to see how he racked up so many points in Juniors last year. But while his offense looks up to par, he had a few lapses on defense. Several times, he would pinch up into the offensive rush too much to get back on defense on time. I’m sure he’s used to being able to sneak up in the opponent’s zone and be able to use his speed to recover if the opponent gets the puck. Not at this level. Also, as I’m sure you have all heard already, Postma tipped the puck into his own net in the second period. I’m not sure exactly what he was trying to do, but that kind of mistake cannot happen. He did have a nice defensive play on a one-on-one, so it’s not like he’s a completely incompetent defender. I like what I saw and hope that he spends a year working on his defense so he can come to camp ready to compete for a spot in 2010.

I didn’t pay much attention to Popovic, but I did notice one thing late in the game. At the end of the third period, Mark was skating extremely fast. Those workouts we heard about him doing in the off-season look like they have paid off big time.

Onto forwards, Josh Gratton won another fight. This guy has some serious grit. Not only did he win a fight, he slammed his head on a crossbar and got up as if it was nothing. Oh yeah, and the guy he defeated in the fight? He needed the trainer to help him off the ice.

The final player I kept my eye on was Maxim Afinogenov. Max was the best skater on the ice for the Thrashers, and I think it’s safe to say at this point that he’s earned himself a roster spot. Throughout the game, he showed his superior speed and puck control as he skated circles around Carolina defenders. Even when he didn’t score, his offensive ability led to scoring chances. Whether it was a wraparound or a deke to the slot to get a shot off, MA was using his skills to create scoring chances. Finally, he put one past Cam Ward, and later made a great pass to Michael Vernace for an assist.

Overall, it was a great night. I saw a lot of positives and minimal negatives. I think two players (Manny Legace and Maxim Afinogenov) earned themselves roster spots with their performances on Friday, and I look forward to seeing them play in the regular season.

Say No to Valabik

Sorry for the long absence from this blog. Starting it up right before leaving for college was probably not the best idea. Anyways, I’m all settled in and ready for the season. So far, I like what I’m hearing about the team. But like every other organization in the league, there will be some tough decisions to make in the next week. A few players for Atlanta, including Tim Stapleton and Josh Gratton, have come out of nowhere and made a push for roster spots. The goalie situation is also up in the air, so the next few days should be very interesting.

The proposal I’m about to make may ruffle the feathers of a few Thrasher fans, but I truly believe it’s the right move. I am suggesting that Atlanta cuts Boris Valabik and sends him back to the AHL. Like many, I had high hopes for him when he was drafted. Unfortunately, he’s done next to nothing to prove his worth on an NHL team. While I haven’t been able to watch any pre-season games (yet), I’ve heard nothing but negative things about Boris. Not only are these comments negative, but it also appears he’s struggling with the same problems: defensive positioning, poor puck handling, and unnecessary penalties. Last night, he was a -2 against a weak Predator pre-season roster. No one else on the team was a -2. One might think that it’s only pre-season, but this guy is fighting for a roster spot. He needs to perform at his best.  So far, I’ve been unimpressed.

Some might say that we need Valabik for his size and toughness. I disagree. Our roster has gotten much bigger over the summer with the additions of Pavel Kubina and Nik Antropov. According to multiple reports, Chris Thorburn has put on a lot of bulk. Boris’ grit is not a necessity by any means. There are plenty of players on this team who can intimidate opponents and drop the gloves. I’m also willing to sacrifice a bit of size and grit for competent puck handlers and smart players who don’t take dumb penalties. Toughness will not be an issue this season as it has been in the past. My other big problem with Boris is his passing abilities. He’s a horrible passer, and that’s a big red flag in Anderson’s system. JA’s style requires the defensemen to be able to retrieve the puck and make good lead passes up to the forwards to create successful breakouts. More often than not, Valabik would fail to execute the breakout. Between him and Exelby, it got very frustrating last year. Exelby was traded for a guy who is a better passer and a better fit in our coach’s scheme. Coincidence? Valabik seems to be a square peg that doesn’t fit into a round hole, and I’d like to see someone else taking his spot.

One thing I’m sick of hearing is comparisons between Valabik and Zdeno Chara. Last year, a lot of Thrasher fans made the claim that we have to be patient with Boris because it took Chara several years to adjust to the NHL. I find this association between the two to be incredibly nonsensical. Just because both of them have to adjust to playing with their size doesn’t mean that Valabik will follow in the same path as Chara. By this logic, Brett Sterling will become an NHL superstar because Martin St. Louis is, and they are both extremely short. The reality is size does not determine skill sets or mental capabilities. That is all up to the individual. It’s Valabik’s fault that he continuously fails to make the right decisions. He had 50 games last year to adjust to the NHL game and has failed to do so. Just because he’s tall doesn’t mean he deserves more time. There are plenty of players in this organization who are more capable of being a third pairing defenseman than Valabik is, and I hope coach Anderson and Don Waddell agree.

The good news is we don’t have to cut Valabik. He can go to the AHL and try to prove his worth. The Thrashers don’t have to completely give up on him, but rather plug in more capable players and wait to see if Boris somehow turns his career around.

Side note: I’ll be attending Friday’s game in Raleigh. I’ll do my best to bring back a good analysis. Let me know if there are certain players you would like me to focus specifically on.

Breaking Down the Kubina/Exelby Trade

As we all know, fan favorite Garnet Exelby was recently traded along with Colin Stuart for Pavel Kubina and Tim Stapleton to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

What did the Thrashers lose?

While I know that this trade is what’s best for the Thrashers, I can’t help but miss Garnet. The final original Thrasher (taken 217th overall in the team’s inaugural draft), Exelby was a class act. He brought a lot to the team on and off the ice. While his physical play may have decreased after his concussion, Garnet always played with grit. His “three straight hits” against the Avalanche and laying out of Mats Sundin are two of my favorite moments in team history. Along with what he did on the ice, Ex’s humor will be missed as well. Garnet’s personality brought a lot to the locker room, and even entertained us with his jumbotron videos. I’ll never know why Mat Schneider was named an assistant captain with no Thrasher experience over X last year. Finally, his reputation with the fans was like no other. No one else runs through the tunnel for warm ups yelling and slapping high fives to every fan. Almost no one else is willing to actually talk to a fan by the bench before a game, let alone make an effort to keep a conversation going. For all of this, Atlanta will miss Garnet.

In this trade, the Atlanta also lost gritty forward Colin Stuart. Colin was one of the most underrated players on the team last year, and it’s tough to see him traded. He was a +3 winger in 33 games with the big club, scoring 5 goals and accumulating 8 points. While those numbers don’t jump off the page, anyone who watched the Thrashers on a regular basis knows that he was an important piece to the team. Penalty killing was not Atlanta’s strength (third worst in the league with a 75.3% success rate), but Colin was one of the reasons down the stretch that they weren’t even worse. Of his 5 goals, 3 were short handed. Being 27, he’s may be close to his ceiling in terms of offensive production, but being a plus player for the Thrashers last year (team gave up 3.36 GAA which was 31st best in the league) means he was doing his job at both ends of the ice.  I was in attendance in Boston for his first NHL goal, and I wish him the best.

What did the Thrashers gain?

Now to Pavel Kubina. Last year, he finished with 14 goals and 26 assists en route to 40 points. He also was a -15 in +/-, but I’m not going to look too far into that. The Leafs, who Kubina played for, were the only team in the league with a worse GAA and overall GA than us. Number 77 (no, not Zhitnik) brings even more offensive upside to the Thrashers, who now have 4 defensemen who are capable of putting up good offensive numbers (the other three being Ron Hainsey, Zach Bogosian, and Tobias Enstrom). Pavel fits into John Anderson’s scheme pretty well. He has size and likes to use it, and jumps into the offensive rush with ease.  His shot from the point is consistently low, making it easier to be deflected. I think we’ll see him get a lot of secondary power play minutes, and depending on where Coach Anderson puts Kovalchuk on the power play, Kubina could play a huge role in that department. Of his 40 points, 22 came on the man advantage (9 G, 13A). With any player, there are positives as well as negatives. His footwork is a bit of an issue, and he has trouble keeping up with quick forwards. If he misplays the puck, he’s prone to give up a big play. We saw this a lot with Exelby as well, so there will still be a few face palms due to defensive breakdowns.  Kubina has the stamina to log a lot of minutes, and will most likely spend the year along side Ron Hainsey as the second defensive unit.

Probably the least discussed part of the deal is center Tim Stapleton. In 2008/2009, Stapleton put up 79 points (28 G, 51 A) in 70 games with the Toronto Marlies of the AHL. He had 1 goal in 4 games with the Leafs in his short stint in the NHL. While his AHL numbers are impressive, several scouting websites place his ceiling as an NHL fourth liner. Frankly, I don’t see him being anything more than a short-term injury replacement.  He’s very undersized at 5’9’’, and will most likely turn into a career AHLer with minimal NHL opportunities. Much like fellow Thrasher prospect Brett Sterling, his size will most likely prevent him from being a productive NHL player. He did play for Finland’s Jokerit Hockey Club, the same team Kari Lehtonen was drafted out of. They did not, however, play together.

Who won the trade?

A comparison of the deal reveals that the Thrashers made out well, but may be “shorthanded” in a certain area. Exelby has never had more than 10 points in a season, only accumulating 7 last year. Every full year that Kubina has played in the NHL, he’s at least doubled Exelby’s career high in points. Last year, he quadrupled it with 40, and has scored at least 30 points 6 times. While Kubina has had some pretty bad +/- ratings in the past, he’s also been a plus player several times in his career. Let’s not forget that Exelby was a -21 in 2007/2008.

Overall, Kubina brings a lot more to the table than Exelby ever did or would. Pavel is only signed through this season, and frankly I don’t see him spending more than this year with Atlanta. With a $5 million salary, he will cost even more if he plays well enough to earn an extension. The Atlanta Spirit will not spend more than $10 million annually on him and Hainsey as a second defensive pairing. If the 09/10 season follows a similar path as the last two years, he will be a very nice bargaining chip at the deadline. Much like Niclas Havelid, trading Kubina could land Waddell another solid prospect in an already above average system. I think the consensus amongst the Thrasher’s brass and fan base is that Kubina will serve as a nice stopgap for some of our rising stars in the organization. The likes of Arturs Kulda and Paul Postma will be ready for the NHL soon enough. They will be much less expensive, which works for a team on a very tight budget. Exelby would have been forced out due to lack of talent soon enough, so seeing him go now as opposed to losing his spot on the team makes it better for him and the fans.

While we all loved Garnet, losing Colin Stuart may hurt the team performance more. Brian Burke wanted a hard-hitting defenseman, but he’s not going to see the player he is hoping for in Exelby. He can watch YouTube clips all he wants, but the Leafs GM may not realize how Garnet has evolved as a player. TSN reported on July 1st that Burke wanted to make his team tougher, and that Exelby was part of this plan. While Burke did a good job adding grit with the likes of Colton Orr amongst others, I don’t expect Exelby to help his cause. If we’re all honest with ourselves, X didn’t bring the big hits or toughness the past two seasons, at least compared to years past. Off the ice, Exelby is second to none. On the ice, he has become a dime-a-dozen player. Stuart was a huge part of our penalty kill, and along with losing Eric Perrin, the Thrashers are thin on PKers. That concerns me a lot. The Thrashers lost 2 of their three best killers on a team that ranked third worst in the NHL in that department. I’m not sure what Waddell, Dudley, and Anderson have planned for the upcoming season, but it looks like the penalty kill will be the bane of our existence yet again. Kari can’t be too happy.

All and all, it may be early to tell who won the trade. Will Exelby return to his old form? Will Kubina live up to his $5 million contract? Will Colin Stuart continue to be a valuable two way forward? None of this is close to a guarantee, therefore I cannot give a concrete answer as to who won. My instinct tells me the Thrashers came out on top, if only because the Leafs aren’t going to get the kind of defenseman they were hoping for. When the All-Star break rolls around, we’ll have a better indication of who brought what to each team.

What does this mean for the team now?

One man who is happy is Coach John Anderson. If there’s one thing he loves, it’s scoring goals. The Thrashers are going to do a lot of that this year. Last season, the Atlanta ranked 9th in the NHL with 3.05 goals scored per game. This trade is going to help that number raise even more. Bogosian and Enstrom are going to flourish as a top pairing. In terms of potential, Atlanta has never had two defensemen playing together that even come close to these guys.  I’m calling this now: Zach Bogosian becomes a top 5 defenseman in the league by the time he’s 23. While most kids his age were playing in high school last year, he was dangling past NHL players and getting slap shots past the best goalies in the world. In only 47 games, Bogosian gathered 19 points…as an 18 year old. Over a full season, that comes to about 35 points (I didn’t do the math, feel free to correct me.) As he continues to mature, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he reaches 45 points this season at only 19. He’ll see more power play time and adjust more to the NHL. Take those 45, add in Kubina’s 35-40, Hainsey’s 30, and Enstrom’s 30-40, we’re talking about one of the most offensively productive defensive units in the whole league. Of course, those points are only estimations, but I feel like none of them are unreasonable.

What does this mean for the team in the future?

As far as the future goes, Kubina’s possible replacements have at a lot of promise. Pavel’s presence alone keeps the team from rushing a prospect or overpaying a free agent. Paul Postma shattered scoring records for WHL defensemen, scoring 84 points in 70 games with a +67 +/- ratings for the Calgary Hitmen. For defensemen, that’s pretty much unheard of. Arturs Kulda is closer to the NHL than Postma, as he already has a full year of experience in professional hockey. Though he doesn’t have the same offensive upside, he can still produce in the opponent’s end of the ice. In 07/08, he scored 34 points in 55 games with the Peterborough Petes of the OHL. Kulda is also strong defensively and has good fundamentals. He won’t put up great offensive numbers in the NHL, but he has a great outlet pass, which will be valuable in Anderson’s system. The Thrashers defense outside of Bogosian and Enstrom were a poor passing unit in 2008/2009. Hainsey and Exelby rarely went tape to tape, and they caused a lot of neutral zone turnovers. Boris Valabik and Nathan Oystrick weren’t great either.

While Kubina will not be here to see the Thrashers truly succeed (unless we witness a miracle next year), he should play an important role in building the team’s future.  Amongst other things, he will be another veteran presence to work with the younger players. Everyone talks about Boris Valabik, our 6’ 7’’ defenseman, needing to adjust to the NHL as one of the tallest players in the league. Kubina is 6’ 4’’, and uses his size well. I’m sure he will be able to help Boris’ progress as he tries to follow in Zdeno Chara’s footsteps. Winning brings the fans back, and I trust that he will be a big part of that as Atlanta attempts to climb out of the NHL basement. While his defensive game may only be a slight improvement over Exelby, the extra 30 points should make a big difference.

Sorry if I babbled a bit. This is my first real blog post ever, so I wanted it to be a good one. If you liked what I had to say or disagree, feel free to comment. Just be mature, otherwise I’ll delete it. Also, if you want to link each other’s blogs (I’m not sure if that’s the correct term), just let me know.

Welcome

Welcome to my blog. Let me tell you a little about myself. My name is Andrew, and I was born in Atlanta, GA. I have since moved to Boston, MA, and will be attending college at Elon University in North Carolina beginning this fall. I plan on majoring in Communications, and hope to one day return to Atlanta after I graduate. As you may have guessed, I’m a big Atlanta Thrashers fan. I take a huge amount of pride in being a hockey fan from the south. I enjoy breaking the stereotype set by the Canadian media that no one down in Dixie plays hockey or knows anything about it. Going to a small private school in Boston, I had the opportunity to play Junior Varsity hockey Junior and Senior year. The fall of my Junior year, I spent almost every day after school at the rink learning how to skate and play the game. When I scored my first goal (top shelf snipe…it was amazing) I did the patented “Kovy one-kneed fist pump.” It led to a few cheap shots and severe pain, but totally worth it. I was raised to love Atlanta sports, and even though I have since moved, that never changed. I support all teams from the state I was born in except the Georgia Bulldogs. To hell with them. I am in the vast minority, but as far as Atlanta sports go, the NHL is my favorite league to watch. Us Thrashers fans form a tight knit community that is a bit of a cult. I wouldn’t have it any other way. While I haven’t had many opportunities to attend games in Atlanta, online message boards have given me a good opportunity to meet and interact with fellow fans.

Being a Thrashers fan isn’t easy. 9 seasons, no playoff wins, and one playoff appearance. You really have to love the game to stay true to this organization. From what I’ve been told, I’ll be going to school with a lot of Bostonians and New Yorkers. Part of my plan of moving south was to get away from those people (no offense), but I’ll probably have to deal with a lot of their fans. I fully plan on being the sole Thrashers fan at a school of about 6,000 students. I’m used to that, though, and it won’t bother me in the least. Boston sports fans don’t really get me, as my experience following my teams has been much different than theirs. I’m ready to throw a parade if one of my teams has a winning record. If a Boston team doesn’t win a championship these days, the whole city goes on suicide watch. I’ll never fully understand that. I’d be able die in peace if just one of my teams won one championship in my lifetime, let alone 6 in 7 years.

Anyways, I plan on bringing my insight on the Thrashers through this blog. I also enjoy graphic design, so I’ll try to bring that into the blog as well. Also, if you want to link each other’s blogs (I’m not sure if that’s the correct term), just let me know.